It will be interesting to see how his administration proceeds. The most likely result is a cautious, pragmatic, skilful administration, as smooth as his election machine. I hope that in addition there are some genuinely original and effective policies.
Since I am British, and since I speak as a libertarian left-winger, I look forward to the unrolling of his foreign policy. The areas which I hope he will be proactive and not merely follow in the footsteps of earlier administrations are in Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, and Africa.
In Iraq, I was in favour of invasion, and of toppling Saddam (like the great majority of both the British and American populations at the time), but not of the occupation afterward. I was also in favour of a rapid withdrawal after the invasion, and I would support an early withdrawal now along the time-line which Obama proposes. The great benefit of American withdrawal of combat troops is that the disparate forces that have united against American "occupation" would be denied their focus, and would be more easily dealt with by the elected Iraqi authorities.
In Afghanistan, the war is being lost because the U.S. and their allies are losing the struggle for the hearts and minds of the people. A radical overhaul of civil, political and military strategy should now take place. The long term objective should be a peaceful, democratically elected country which is able to function as a healthy member of the international community. But the means of achieving that result should be subject to the most stringent analysis. Purchasing the poppy crop for medical purposes, eliminating the Taliban and warlord middle-men, should be seriously and objectively considered. The influx of payments for this cash crop directly to the peasants would help to support and strengthen the economic base of the rural communities, and enable peasants to invest in livestock and other crops. Given that effective rule of the majority of Afghanistan from Kabul seems impossible, federation into regions with different ethnic majorities should also be evaluated. Afghanistan can be successfully negotiated, but it will require political will and ruthless clarity of vision.
Turning to Israel, I suggested in my previous posting that Israel and America should seize the strategic initiative from Hamas and others who believe in violence by building a "peace-road" between Gaza and the West Bank, uniting the two Palestinian territories and demonstrating their commitment to a future Palestine state.
In Africa, President Obama should demand the end of the corrupt political class which -- with the exception of rare countries like Botswana -- rules almost all African states. Not surprisingly, perhaps, the political elite are called locally the Wa-Benzi. Wa means "people" and Benzi refers to the fact that they always have the latest Mercedes Benz limousines. Obama should demand that South Africa immediately withdraw its support for the terrible, failed, genocidal regime of Robert Mugabe. Africa's problem is not that it produces tyrants -- every society has its potential tyrants -- but rather that Africa's cowed and impoverished populations permit tyrannical rulers to exploit them with little more reaction than passive fatalism. A powerful and high-minded black American President should raise their expectations and morale, and they should learn to demand effective and non-corrupt governance.
As a last wish, I hope Obama cold-shoulders Gordon Brown. Brown's profligate state spending has brought Britain to the brink of bankruptcy as surely as George W Bush's own uncontrolled state spending has contributed to America's current impasse. Perhaps Obama will be that rarest and most valuable of political leaders -- a left-winger at heart who at the same time respects tax-payers' hard-earned money and who uses it frugally and wisely. That really would provide a fine model for future political leaders.
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